Our US Bond Strategy team put out a Strategy Insight outlining the value they see in the Treasury market. The recent rise in Treasury yields reflects increased inflation uncertainty and a higher term premium. Treasury…
US December housing data was strong, with housing starts printing above estimates at 1.49m, an acceleration from an upwardly-revised 1.29m in November. Building permits also surprised positively at 1.483m, but still decreased from 1.…
We examine Treasury market valuation and look for indicators that could help us time the next peak in yields. We also update the forecasts from our Treasury yield model.
UK inflation surprised to the downside in December. Headline inflation retreated below estimates to 2.5% y/y from an eight-month high of 2.6% in November. Core inflation also decreased below estimates, printing 3.2% vs. 3.5% in…
The preliminary January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index missed estimates on Friday, driven by a cooling of consumer expectations. Worryingly, both the 1-year and 5-to-10 year inflation expectations ticked up to 3.3%…
UK and German bonds are victims of the global bond market riots. Will European yields continue to move higher and will the euro and the pound find a floor anytime soon?
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for January 2025.
The euro broke the support level of its 2-year trading range against the USD, extending the strong dollar trend witnessed since September of last year. This trend will continue in Q1 2025. Despite global yields rallying in late…
Our US Bond Strategy team published their outlook for the Fed in 2025. They expect more cuts than the 50 bps signaled by the Fed at its December meeting. Core PCE inflation is tracking well below the Fed’s 2.5% forecast, while…