Monetary
The ECB cut by 25 bps as expected, bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.75%. Despite avoiding committing to a path for policy, President Lagarde reiterated the disinflationary process is “well on track”, and did not push against current market pricing,…
Jonathan provides an update on Canada following strong performance from Canadian stocks last year. On a tactical basis, underweight Canada versus global ex-US on the expectation of tariffs targeting Canada and Mexico. Following a sell off, or if a trade war is avoided, investors should place Canadian stocks on upgrade watch with the goal of moving to a modest overweight versus global ex-US.
The Bank of Canada cut by 25 bps to 3% as expected, and announced the end of quantitative tightening. This sixth consecutive cut brings the policy rate further into neutral territory, estimated to be in the 2.25%-to-3.25% range. The BoC assessed…
The Federal Reserve kept rates on hold in its 4.25%-to-4.5% range, as expected. The main change in the statement was the removal of the reference to progress towards the Fed’s 2% target, leaving instead a simple mention that inflation “remains somewhat…
Jay Powell didn’t say much at this afternoon’s FOMC press conference, and monetary policy will continue to take a back seat to fiscal for the next few months.
The January Ifo Business Climate index for Germany beat estimates, increasing to 85.1 vs. 84.7 in December. The increase came from the survey’s current assessment component, which increased a full point, as the expectations component missed estimates and…
Until recently, Canada had been flying under the radar, yet it presents an interesting macro case. The Bank of Canada hiked rates in lockstep with the Fed, but it began cutting earlier due to a more fragile Canadian economy. Domestic and international…
November/December UK employment data was mixed. The November unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 4.4%, in line with expectations. Payrolled employees decreased faster than expected at a 47k pace in December, surpassing the 35k contraction in November. However,…
The December Canadian CPI was roughly in line with estimates, with headline inflation ticking down to 1.8% y/y from 1.9% in November. The BoC’s core inflation measures, median and trim, also decreased from 2.6% to 2.4% and 2.5%,…
Our Emerging Markets strategists put together a hypothetical conversation between President Trump and Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent on what economic policy would look like for the Trump 2.0 administration. Secretary Bessent is expected…