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Highlights Monetary Policy: The Fed will keep rates at the zero bound at least until inflation is above 2% and it will maintain an accommodative policy stance until long-dated TIPS breakeven inflation rates move above 2.3%. Remain…
To all clients, Next week, in lieu of publishing a regular report, I will be hosting a webcast on September 15th at 10 am EDT, discussing our latest views on global fixed income markets.  Sign up details for the Webcast will…
Highlights Bygones will no longer be bygones for the Fed when it comes to inflation, … : It has yet to define the parameters of its new approach, but the Fed is promising a sizable break with the past by adopting an average…
Highlights Stocks, particularly tech stocks, are technically overbought and highly vulnerable to a further correction. Nevertheless, investors should continue to overweight global equities relative to bonds on a 12-month horizon, while…
  The European Central Bank has little scope to push German, French or Dutch yields much lower from current levels, especially as markets are already convinced that the ECB will not be able to raise interest rates for many years.…
  BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy & US Bond Strategy service highlights that the official shift to an average inflation targeting regime represents a massive structural break relative to how the Fed conducted…
Recommended Allocation  Chart 1Only Internet Stocks Have Kept On Rising  It has been a very strange bull market. Although global equities are up 52% since their bottom on March 23rd, the rally has been limited largely to…
Special Report Highlights Fed Policy Changes: The official shift to an average inflation targeting regime represents a massive structural break relative to how the Fed conducted monetary policy in the past. The main takeaway for investors should be…
Special Report Highlights President Trump is making a comeback in our quantitative election model. An upgrade from our 35% odds of a Trump win is on the horizon, pending a fiscal relief bill.  The Fed’s pursuit of “maximum…
Special Report Highlights Historically, soft-budget constraints have typically been followed by periods of poor equity market performance. Soft-budget constraints could produce two distinct economic scenarios: malinvestment or inflation. Both are…