Highlights Monetary Policy: Central bankers worldwide are promising to keeping policy rates near 0% for at least the next two years, even if inflation begins to rise again. This is an obvious form of forward guidance designed to keep…
Dear Client, US Investment Strategy will take the first of two summer breaks next week, so there will be no publication on July 13th. We will return on July 20th with the latest installment of our Big Bank Beige Book, reviewing the five…
Highlights Global Growth & Inflation: An increasing number of growth indicators worldwide are tracing out a “v”-shaped pattern from the COVID-19 recession. However, high unemployment and a lack of inflationary pressure…
Highlights Money Supply Drivers: About 70% of the unprecedented increase in broad money supply is the result of the Fed’s asset purchase activity. The remaining 30% is due to an uptick in C&I loan growth, almost all of which…
Highlights When retail investors invest aggressively and central banks buy assets en masse, economic fundamentals take the back seat and momentum becomes king. Global risk assets are at a fork in the road: either they will relapse…
Highlights High-Yield: Our analysis of current junk spread levels relative to likely economic outcomes leaves us inclined to maintain our current recommended positioning: Overweight Ba-rated bonds, underweight bonds rated B & below…
Highlights Equities hit an air pocket last week after making another recovery high: Investors seemed to reassess the economy’s direction following official forecasts that ranged from sober to grim. “Whatever we can, and…
Highlights Historically, when global growth picks up, the yen weakens. But this is less likely in an environment where global yields remain anchored at low levels. Meanwhile, there is rising risk that consumption in Japan will remain…
Please note that yesterday we published Special Report on Egypt recommending buying domestic bonds while hedging currency risk. Today we are enclosing analysis on Hungary, Poland and Colombia. I will present our latest thoughts on the…