Special Report

Feature The crisis surrounding COVID-19 eventually will pass and hopefully life gradually will return to some degree of normality. Even if it is not possible to completely eradicate the virus, we will have to learn to live with it,…

Highlights EM QE programs will ensure that EM local currency bond yields will drop further. However, the impact of these EM QE programs on EM currencies is ambiguous. Continue receiving long-term swap rates in a number of EM…

Special Report

What Can 1918/1919 Teach Us About COVID-19?    “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it” George Santayana – 1905   Chart 1Coronavirus: As Contagious But Not As Deadly As Spanish…

Special Report

Highlights Fed/BoE NIRP: It is too soon for either the Fed or Bank of England to consider a move to a negative interest rate policy (NIRP), even with US and UK money markets flirting with pricing in that outcome. Lessons from “…

Special Report

Highlights COVID-19 & The Economy: Australia is now in its first recession in 30 years, thanks to lockdown measures to contain the spread of COVID-19. Yet the nation’s rates of infection and death from the virus are…

  The Fed’s unorthodox monetary policy will likely continue to underpin equity prices in the coming 9-12 months. Specifically, according to Leo Krippner’s shadow short rates (SSR) estimate, the shadow fed funds rate…

Highlights Treasuries: Despite surging issuance, long-dated Treasury yields will move only slightly higher this year, driven by a modest recovery in global demand. There is also a risk that a second wave of COVID infections will send…

Highlights ECB: The ECB disappointed markets last week who expected an increase in the size of its asset purchase schemes given the recent increase of Italian bond yields. For now, the central bank remains focused on preventing a…

Highlights The air is thick with denunciations of the Fed’s new round of aggressive interventions … : In financial circles, it’s beginning to sound like the winter of 2008-9 all over again, as respected thought…

Highlights The global economy will contract at its fastest pace since the early 1930s, but will not slump into a depression. Easy monetary conditions, an extremely expansive fiscal policy, and solid bank and household balance sheets…