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Monetary

How Bessenomics Was Born

There is no better way to gauge the macro policies of the new US administration than being privy to President Donald Trump’s discussions with the new Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent. While we do not have inside information, we have put the pieces of the puzzle together to help clients see the big picture. This report presents our take on a hypothetical conversation between President Trump and Scott Bessent that led to the latter’s appointment as Treasury secretary.

BCA Special Reports, Emerging Markets Strategy, GeoMacro Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
US Rates: More On Value And Timing
Our US Bond Strategy team put out a Strategy Insight outlining the value they see in the Treasury market.  The recent rise in Treasury yields reflects increased inflation uncertainty and a higher term premium. Treasury yields now offer an attractive…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Is US Housing Finding A Bottom?
US December housing data was strong, with housing starts printing above estimates at 1.49m, an acceleration from an upwardly-revised 1.29m in November. Building permits also surprised positively at 1.483m, but still decreased from 1.493m a month prior. The…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
More On Value And Timing

We examine Treasury market valuation and look for indicators that could help us time the next peak in yields. We also update the forecasts from our Treasury yield model.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
UK: Inflation Surprises To The Downside
UK inflation surprised to the downside in December. Headline inflation retreated below estimates to 2.5% y/y from an eight-month high of 2.6% in November. Core inflation also decreased below estimates, printing 3.2% vs. 3.5% in November. Services inflation,…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Are Inflation Expectations Rising Again?
The preliminary January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index missed estimates on Friday, driven by a cooling of consumer expectations. Worryingly, both the 1-year and 5-to-10 year inflation expectations ticked up to 3.3% from 2.8% and 3.0%,…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The Bond Market Riot Engulfs Europe

UK and German bonds are victims of the global bond market riots. Will European yields continue to move higher and will the euro and the pound find a floor anytime soon? 

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
On Value And Timing

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for January 2025. 

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
The Fed In 2025
Our US Bond Strategy team published their outlook for the Fed in 2025. They expect more cuts than the 50 bps signaled by the Fed at its December meeting. Core PCE inflation is tracking well below the Fed’s 2.5% forecast, while unemployment could exceed…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Euro Breaks Long-Held Support Level
The euro broke the support level of its 2-year trading range against the USD, extending the strong dollar trend witnessed since September of last year. This trend will continue in Q1 2025. Despite global yields rallying in late 2024, the Bund-Treasury…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier

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