Monetary

The September employment report probably won’t convince enough hawks to vote for a rate cut in December.

This Special Report outlines the Fed’s balance sheet strategy and the rationale behind it. We also provide updated projections for the major asset and liability line items on the Fed’s balance sheet.

The Bank of England will resume rate cuts in December after the autumn budget is passed. Today’s Strategy Insight discusses what this means for UK gilts and the pound.

The Fed cut rates today, but a follow-up rate cut in December is uncertain. It will depend, in large part, on who wins a debate about the neutral rate of interest.

The Fed is poised to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut this month, but a follow-up rate cut in December will depend on how the divergence between strong consumer spending and weak employment growth is resolved.

Treasury yields are generally following the pattern of past interest rate cycles, but with a larger term premium keeping the curve steeper than usual.