Monetary

According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, Brazil’s decision to raise interest rates is supported by recent economic data. Back in January of this year,  they noted that Brazil would overshoot its 2024 growth and inflation…

Preliminary estimates suggest that activity continued to slow across DM economies in September. Manufacturing PMIs contracted at a faster pace in the US, Eurozone, Germany, France and Australia, and grew at a slower pace in the UK. Services PMIs continued…

The PBoC lowered the 14-day reverse repo rate by 10 bps on Monday, a move that follows a string of easing measures in late July when the central bank lowered the 7-day reverse repo rate, several maturities of the loan prime rate and the 1-year medium-term…

The European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates by 25 bps in September. It did not signal consecutive rate cuts and we highlighted that the short inter-meeting timeframe between September and October provides little scope for ongoing data releases to move the…

Canadian retail sales grew by a higher-than-expected 0.9% m/m in July from a 0.2% contraction in June. A 2.2% monthly rise in vehicle sales led an otherwise broad-based increase. Ex-auto retail sales also surprised positively, growing by 0.4%. A measure…

The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.25% in September and signaled it was in no rush to lift rates further. This move follows two hikes this year, one of them unanticipated.   The signaling is consistent with dovish comments in August…

The Norges Bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.5% at its September meeting and signaled low odds of policy easing before the first quarter of 2025. The inflation backdrop does not warrant easing policy. Although core CPI cooled to 3.2% y/y in August,…

The Bank of Japan’s policy normalization has been accompanied by exceptional outperformance by Japanese banks. Japanese banks have outperformed both the country’s broader market as well as the MSCI ACW Banks index by 10.3% and 2.6%, respectively, so far this…

According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, investor sentiment in Vietnamese markets has soured significantly since 2022, when the authorities' sweeping crackdown on alleged corruption in the real estate sector expanded to political…

The 10-year Treasury yield rose in the aftermath of the Fed’s jumbo rate cut on Wednesday. Our US Bond strategists noted that this move reflects the fact that the downward revisions to the dots still fall short of the magnitude of cuts embedded in the…