Monetary
UK headline CPI grew at a stable 2.2% y/y in August, though the core measure accelerated from 3.3% to 3.6%, in line with expectations. An 11.6% annual increase in airfare largely drove core CPI higher, while offsetting contributions from food and alcohol led…
The Fed started its easing cycle with a bang, cutting the policy rate by 50 basis points in September, above consensus expectations but in line with odds embedded in the futures and OIS curves. Our US Bond strategists had highlighted it is unusual for the…
Stress among lower-income households is often cited as an early indication of deteriorating aggregate consumer fundamentals. The data indeed suggests that this cohort’s cash holdings are depleting. However, the Fed’s quarterly estimates of household wealth…
US retail sales grew 0.1% m/m in August and beat expectations of a 0.2% monthly contraction. The positive surprise seemingly spurred equity market gains on Tuesday morning. However, details do not paint as rosy a picture as the headline number…
Canadian headline CPI inflation decelerated at a faster-than-anticipated pace from 2.5% y/y to 2.0% in August, the slowest since 2021. Notably, core median and trimmed-mean CPI ticked 0.1 ppt and 0.3 ppt lower to 2.3% and 2.4%, respectively. Lower oil…
The ZEW survey of both German business expectations and current situation largely disappointed in September, decreasing by 15.6 points to 3.6 and by 7.2 points to -84.5, respectively. The ZEW survey of expectations for the broader Eurozone also fell…
This Special Report examines the post-pandemic evolution of consumption growth, relative equity sector and subindustry performance and recent commentary from consumer-facing companies to assess the likelihood that softer spending among lower-income households will spread to middle- and upper-income households.
The Chinese economic data in its totality was uninspiring in August. Industrial production and retail sales growth decelerated year-on-year and corroborate the message from August’s import and credit growth data that domestic demand remains lackluster.…
We noted earlier this month that the Fed would be unlikely to deliver a jumbo rate cut without telegraphing it first. President Williams' and Governor Waller’s September 6 speeches offered policymakers one last chance to do so before the customary pre-FOMC…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, the imbalances in the US economy are sizeable enough to generate a mild recession. Unfortunately for equity investors, a mild recession would not preclude a deep correction in stocks. …