The ECB will cut rates once more this year; however, markets underprice how far it will ease next year.
ECB Governing Council members unanimously voted in favor of lowering the deposit facility rate by 25 bps to 3.50% in September, marking the second cut this year. Moreover, expectations for weaker domestic demand led the ECB to…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, the Fed’s upcoming rate cut will temporarily alleviate some of the downward pressure on the RMB, but beyond the short term the USD will likely rebound in…
Some thoughts on this morning’s US claims report and a preview of next week’s FOMC meeting.
US headline CPI eased from 2.9% y/y to 2.5% in August in line with consensus predictions. However, core CPI unexpectedly accelerated from 0.2% m/m to 0.3%. Aside from airfares -- a highly volatile series which is likely to…
Despite global bond yields having trended lower since April, bonds have only started outperforming equities since July in US dollar terms. We expect this outperformance to persist going forward. Sentiment has largely driven…
Our reaction to this morning’s CPI report and what it means for Fed policy.
China’s CPI and PPI both surprised to the downside in August. Consumer prices grew from 0.5% y/y to 0.6%, below the 0.7% anticipated. However, a 2.8% y/y surge in food prices (the fastest pace so far this year)…
Eurozone GDP’s final estimate indicates that growth was slower than expected in Q2. Output grew 0.2% q/q in Q2, compared to 0.3% previously reported. A significant downward revision to capex (2.2% contraction against 1.8%…