BCA Research’s European Investment strategists looked at previous episodes of carry-trade blowups and assessed the performance of the Eurozone’s key sectors, national markets, and currencies three and six months…
August nonfarm payrolls expanded by 142 thousand workers, from a downwardly revised 89 thousand and below expectations of 165 thousand. Payroll growth fell to a four-year-low of 116 thousand on a 3-month moving average basis.…
The July Employment Situation report had already cemented the case for a September rate cut and Chairman Powell’s Jackson Hole comments dispelled any remaining doubt about an imminent monetary easing cycle. All the labor…
BCA’s Global Leading Economic Indicator, a GDP-weighted average of the standardized leading indicators of 23 DM and EM economies, has had a good track record of predicting year-on-year changes in the IMF global real GDP…
The pro-cyclical Eurozone economy is highly exposed to a global downturn, which we expect will materialize by early 2025. The ECB is behind the curve and we thus expect it to ease more aggressively than markets expect next year…
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, central banks will continue to be a key source of gold demand. Central bank purchases in the first half of this year exceeded first-half purchases in…
This morning's employment report, particularly the downward revisions to prior months, strengthens our conviction that the US economy is headed for recession.
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for September 2024.
The Fed’s Beige Book compiles qualitative input sourced from business and other organizational contacts in each of its 12 Districts. It precedes FOMC meetings by a couple of weeks and is meant to help participants trace the…
Many currencies have registered sizable gains against the US dollar over the last two months. Most notably, the yen has been one of the best G7 performers since the greenback began depreciating. It now trades at 143 against the…