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Monetary

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How ‘Bout Them Apples

The great US labor market shortage is over. Labor demand will likely fall short of supply by the end of this year, causing unemployment to soar. Neither fiscal nor monetary policy will be able to prevent the coming recession. Investors should underweight stocks and overweight Treasuries.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
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Lessons From Past Global Tightening Cycles

In this Special Report, we assess the impact of monetary policy tightening on major economies. Interest rate sensitive GDP already slowed significantly in response to the aggressive rate hiking cycle. Despite the beginning of policy easing, our forward-looking indicators suggest monetary policy will continue to weigh on the economy.

Global Fixed Income Strategy by Robert Timper
Payrolls Get Largest Downward Revision Since 2009
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised down the number of workers on payrolls by 818 thousand over the twelve months period ending March 2024. This largest downward revision since 2009 thus implies that the labor market has been far less resilient than…
Daily Insights
DXY Hits A 2024 Low
The DXY hit a 2024 low on Wednesday. The decline which totaled nearly 5% from its April highs, gathered pace this month (a 3% decline in August) when labor market worries spooked markets. The Fed had already telegraphed it was getting closer to cutting…
Daily Insights
Ebbing Inflation Keeps BoC Easing On Track
Canadian headline CPI decelerated from 2.7% y/y to 2.5% in July, the slowest pace in over 3 years. Notably, core median and trimmed-mean CPI eased further than expected, to 2.4% and 2.7% y/y respectively, 0.1 ppt below anticipations. Lower prices for…
Daily Insights
Riksbank Eases Policy Further
In a widely expected move, the Riksbank lowered its policy rate from 3.75% to 3.5% in August. It had kept rates on hold in June, after having led many other major DM central banks in easing policy in May. The Riksbank also signaled it could cut as many as…
Daily Insights
Structural Drivers Of Real Interest Rates
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy and US Bond Strategy services, the drivers of the structural downtrend in real interest rates include: demographic trends (declining fertility rates, longer life expectancy and a rising dependency…
Daily Insights
Is The Nascent Housing Deterioration A Canary In The Coalmine?
Housing starts and permits both disappointed in July. New construction contracted 6.8% m/m, from a 1.1% expansion in June. Permits, which typically lead housing starts, declined 4.0% m/m in July from 3.9% growth in the previous month. Concurrently, the NAHB…
Daily Insights
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Mixed Signals For The BoE

What do the mixed signals sent by the UK economy mean for the Bank of England, and what are the implications for Gilts and the British pound?

European Investment Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Mathieu Savary
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The Paradox Of A Weak NOK

In this report, we gauge the reasons behind the persistently weak Norwegian krone, despite what appears to be benign domestic economic conditions.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor, Artem Sakhbiev

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