Just a few days after unexpectedly lowering three key borrowing rates by 10 basis points (bps), the PBoC cut the 1-year medium-term lending facility rate by 20 bps, from 2.50% to 2.30%. While the earlier cut lowered the…

  The preliminary release of Q2 2024 US GDP surprised to the upside on Thursday. The US economy grew 2.8% on an annualized basis, and 3.1% on a year-over-year basis. The two largest drivers of the acceleration were consumption (…

  We have high conviction that continued labor market softening will tip the US economy into a recession by year-end or early next year. It will reverberate to the rest of the world given that the US has been the main driver of…

  According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, it is time to increase portfolio duration from “at benchmark” to “above benchmark” on a 6-12 month horizon. Since February, our colleagues…

  The Bank of Canada (BoC) reduced its policy rate by 25bps for the second meeting in a row on Wednesday. We highlighted in a recent Insight that the soft June inflation print and weakening labor market increased the odds of more…

  UK’s CPI growth stands right on the Bank of England’s (BoE) 2% target. However, services inflation remains sticky, growing at a constant 5.7% y/y in June. Moreover, the deceleration in wage growth remains insufficient…

  The PBoC lowered the 7-day reverse repo rate from 1.80% to 1.70% on Monday. The 5-year and 1-year loan prime rates declined by 10 basis points (bps) to 3.85% and 3.35%, respectively. However, this 10-bps cut is unlikely to…

  The four ASEAN stock markets (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines) have fallen in absolute terms over the past year despite the powerful rally in the developed markets. They have also underperformed their EM…