In Section I, we examine some concerning signs of US economic weakness that emerged in June. We also discuss portfolio positioning in the face of falling interest rates and cross-check our recommended US equity overweight in the face…
Right after the pandemic, many US homeowners locked in mortgages at extremely low rates. When interest rates rose, these homeowners refused to sell, as moving to a new home would result in an interest rate reset. In turn this…
Australia’s inflation for May was released on Tuesday. Annual headline CPI increased from 3.6% in April to 4%, outpacing expectations of 3.8%. Trimmed-mean inflation also increased from 4.1% to 4.4%. Individual…
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy team posits that the BJP's loss of majority in India’s parliament could be a blessing in disguise for India. The new BJP-led coalition with the National Democratic…
Our Global Investment Strategy team often highlights the job openings-to-unemployed ratio as a gauge of the labor market’s slack. This indicator climbed to over 2 job openings per unemployed person in 2022, as labor…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the BoE will start cutting rates in September, but the pace of subsequent rate cuts will be modest until a recession engulfs Western economies in early 2025…
Canada’s headline inflation rate for May surprised to the upside on Tuesday. The 0.6% month-on-month print and 2.9% year-on-year increase came in above expectations of 0.3% m/m and 2.6% y/y, respectively. Both measures…
Is the BoE making a mistake moving toward rate cuts before the end of the summer? What would such a move mean for UK asset prices?
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service, the Norges Bank will be one of the last central banks to cut rates. The Swiss National Bank, Bank of England, and Norges Bank all held policy meetings on…
We look at the implications a various European central bank meetings this week, for currency strategy.