MORENA has once again swept the Mexican election: Claudia Sheinbaum will be president, with little to no constraint in Congress. All in all, Mexican politics will remain stable and overall supportive of markets. In the medium term,…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for June 2024.
US nominal personal income growth decelerated from 0.5% m/m to 0.3% m/m in April, in line with expectations. However, nominal personal spending surprised to the downside, and contracted 0.1% m/m in real terms. Core PCE –…
Euro Area CPI accelerated for the first time this year from 2.4% y/y to a faster-than-expected 2.6% y/y in May. Preliminary estimates also suggest that core CPI accelerated from 2.7% y/y to 2.9% y/y, against expectations of a…
We comment on whether Treasury market valuation is sufficiently attractive to get long bonds and consider some of the common arguments for why yields may yet make new highs.
Looking at economic activity, global monetary policy seems restrictive, however, the behavior of financial markets tells a different story. What gives?
The signs of an approaching recession are starting to emerge. We will turn tactically defensive once they all fall into place.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept interest rates on hold at this week’s monetary policy meeting, in line with expectations. However, there were three new notes from its monetary policy statement that will likely…
Negotiated wages rose 4.7% y/y in Q1, from 4.5% y/y in Q4 in the Eurozone. Meanwhile, preliminary estimates for the Eurozone Composite PMI surprised to the upside in May. Although wage growth is the main driver of services…
