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Monetary

Hawkish Concerns From FOMC Minutes Are Likely Overblown
Minutes from the April 30 - May 1 FOMC meeting struck a hawkish tone on the latest discussions among Fed officials. Notably, the reference to “Various participants mention[ing] a willingness to tighten policy further should risks to inflation materialize in a…
Daily Insights
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New Zealand: The Rising Case For A Rate Cut

In this Insight, we revisit our "higher for longer" theme for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, in light of the latest central bank meeting. In conclusion, we are inching towards a more dovish RBNZ ahead. Ergo, we recommend some fixed income and currency trades.

Foreign Exchange Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Hot UK CPI Pushes Back On Summer Rate Cut
The UK CPI release surprised markets to the upside across the board on Wednesday. Headline CPI increased 2.3% year-on-year, above expectations of 2.1%. Core surprised to the upside as well, moderating from 4.2% to 3.9%y/y, less than the moderation embedded in…
Daily Insights
Ebbing Canadian Inflation Opens Door To Summer Rate Cut
Canada’s headline CPI inflation decelerated in April from 2.9% y/y to 2.7% y/y. Notably, core median CPI eased from 2.9% y/y to a softer-than-anticipated 2.6% y/y and core trimmed-mean CPI ticked lower from 3.2% to 2.9%. Food and durable goods led the…
Daily Insights
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Recap Of Q1-24 Earnings: Looking Ahead

Q1 Earnings and sales growth were strong, but the devil is in the details: Without the Magnificent Five, earnings growth for the index would have been negative. On a positive note, margins have stabilized, and earnings growth is expected to broaden into yearend. Companies are optimistic about the economy. Development of AI applications is in full swing, but few companies are monetizing them yet. Consumer spending is strong but is slowing. We reiterate our underweight of consumer sectors, and overweight of Software and Services as the “don’t fight AI” adage holds.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
The BoC Will Cut Rates More Aggressively Than The Fed
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, the BoC should have sufficient evidence of Canadian disinflation to cut rates this summer. The market is pricing in a similar amount of rate cuts for the BoC and the Fed over the next 12 months.…
Daily Insights
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Strategy For ASEAN Markets

ASEAN stocks and currencies will weaken further as these economies face multiple headwinds. Raising policy rates did not stop a sliding currency in the past, it is unlikely to do so now.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik
US CPI Inflation Eases In April
US headline CPI inflation decelerated to a softer-than-expected 0.3% m/m (3.4% y/y) in April, from 0.4% m/m (3.5% y/y). Core CPI eased from 0.4% m/m (3.5% y/y) to 0.3% m/m (3.4% y/y). Declines in new (-0.4% m/m) and used vehicles (-1.4% m/m) prices largely…
Daily Insights
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Core Inflation Is Back On Track

Our updated views on Treasury yields and Fed policy following this morning’s CPI report.

US Bond Strategy
Why Aren't High Rates Cooling Australia's Housing Market?
Despite historically high interest rates and the fact that variable-rate mortgage issuances dominate the mortgage market landscape, Australian home prices continue to climb at a close to double-digit annual rate. The Core Logic House Price index is now…
Daily Insights

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