Why the US could get a jobs recession without a GDP recession, as happened in 2001, and what it means for stocks and bonds. Plus, an update on the Joshi rule.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its policy rate unchanged at 4.35% at its May meeting, in line with expectations. The statement highlighted that inflation continues to moderate, though at a slower-than-expected pace.…
Transit through the Suez Canal has hit a new low. The 7-day moving average of daily ship transit calls is currently at 30, less than half of what it was at the end of 2023. The decline in volume has been even more severe, with…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for May 2024.
The broad market took a significant step backward in April, as market jitters gripped investors, stoking fears of higher for longer monetary policy. However, our roundtable investor poll has demonstrated that the majority remain…
The cyclical outlook is gloomy for EUR/USD. We subscribe to neither the soft-landing nor the no-landing view and expect a recession to occur in late 2024/early 2025. The pro-cyclical euro would suffer in a global downturn while a…
Some thoughts on this morning’s employment report and recent trends in US economic data.
Investors should prepare for economic data to weaken even as policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk skyrocket ahead of the US election.
The Fed left the policy rate unchanged following its May FOMC meeting. It also announced it would slow the pace of quantitative tightening starting on June 1, from the current $60 billion per month to $25 billion per month for…
Updated views on US Treasury yields and the dollar following today’s FOMC meeting.