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Monetary

The BoC Will Cut Rates More Aggressively Than The Fed
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, the BoC should have sufficient evidence of Canadian disinflation to cut rates this summer. The market is pricing in a similar amount of rate cuts for the BoC and the Fed over the next 12 months.…
Daily Insights
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Strategy For ASEAN Markets

ASEAN stocks and currencies will weaken further as these economies face multiple headwinds. Raising policy rates did not stop a sliding currency in the past, it is unlikely to do so now.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik
US CPI Inflation Eases In April
US headline CPI inflation decelerated to a softer-than-expected 0.3% m/m (3.4% y/y) in April, from 0.4% m/m (3.5% y/y). Core CPI eased from 0.4% m/m (3.5% y/y) to 0.3% m/m (3.4% y/y). Declines in new (-0.4% m/m) and used vehicles (-1.4% m/m) prices largely…
Daily Insights
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Core Inflation Is Back On Track

Our updated views on Treasury yields and Fed policy following this morning’s CPI report.

US Bond Strategy
Why Aren't High Rates Cooling Australia's Housing Market?
Despite historically high interest rates and the fact that variable-rate mortgage issuances dominate the mortgage market landscape, Australian home prices continue to climb at a close to double-digit annual rate. The Core Logic House Price index is now…
Daily Insights
Deteriorating Data Complicates BoJ’s Path To Tightening
The Bank of Japan’s Economy Watchers Survey – a gauge of sentiment among business owners – disappointed in April. The Current Conditions and the Outlook indices deteriorated from 49.8 to 47.4 (20-month low) and from 51.2 to 48.5 (16-month low), below…
Daily Insights
US Economic Surprise Index Points To Lower Bond Yields
The US Citi Economic Surprise Index has recently dipped below zero, indicating that US economic data releases have been disappointing expectations. Most notably, the ISM Services PMI started contracting in April against anticipation of a faster pace of…
Daily Insights
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Biding Our Time

We marked the first X on our Equity Downgrade Checklist and the latest JOLTS, Employment Situation and SLOOS releases brought us closer to ticking some others. We remain tactically neutral on equities but expect that we will underweight them as excess savings are further depleted, leading labor market indicators continue to soften and consumer credit performance continues to fray.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
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Bunds In A Bind

German Bunds have cheapened considerably, and the ECB is about to start cutting rates. Does this combination guarantee immediate profits from buying these bonds?

European Investment Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Canadian Employment Growth Picks Up, But Won’t Prevent BoC Easing
The Canadian economy added 90.4 thousand jobs in April, up from a new loss of 2.2 thousand jobs in March. The April reading beat expectations of a more moderate increase of 20 thousand. The services sector entirely explains April’s employment growth; services…
Daily Insights

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