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Monetary

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Memories Of 2001

Why the US could get a jobs recession without a GDP recession, as happened in 2001, and what it means for stocks and bonds. Plus, an update on the Joshi rule.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
The RBA Forecast High Inflation And Subdued Growth
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its policy rate unchanged at 4.35% at its May meeting, in line with expectations. The statement highlighted that inflation continues to moderate, though at a slower-than-expected pace. Board members also pointed out…
Daily Insights
Suez Canal Transit Hits New Lows
Transit through the Suez Canal has hit a new low. The 7-day moving average of daily ship transit calls is currently at 30, less than half of what it was at the end of 2023. The decline in volume has been even more severe, with metric tons passing through the…
Daily Insights
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Timing The Breakout In Bond Yields

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for May 2024.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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Sector Chart Pack: Webcast Follow-Up: Polls And More

The broad market took a significant step backward in April, as market jitters gripped investors, stoking fears of higher for longer monetary policy. However, our roundtable investor poll has demonstrated that the majority remain constructive on equities, and have plenty of cash ready to be invested, which could prolong the rally. Economic data is deteriorating while inflation is stubborn. However, so far, bad news is good news as many believe that a “Fed put” is still on.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel, Guy Russell
Better Data Could Boost EUR/USD In The Short-Term
The cyclical outlook is gloomy for EUR/USD. We subscribe to neither the soft-landing nor the no-landing view and expect a recession to occur in late 2024/early 2025. The pro-cyclical euro would suffer in a global downturn while a recession would support the…
Daily Insights
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The Trading Range Holds

Some thoughts on this morning’s employment report and recent trends in US economic data.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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US Politics In May And June

Investors should prepare for economic data to weaken even as policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk skyrocket ahead of the US election.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken
The Fed Downplays Rate Hikes
The Fed left the policy rate unchanged following its May FOMC meeting. It also announced it would slow the pace of quantitative tightening starting on June 1, from the current $60 billion per month to $25 billion per month for Treasuries redemptions, while…
Daily Insights
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Not As Hawkish As Feared

Updated views on US Treasury yields and the dollar following today’s FOMC meeting.

US Bond Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Ryan Swift, Chester Ntonifor

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