Retail gasoline prices have surged 13% since the beginning of the year, boosted by resilient global demand and geopolitical tensions. A key question for investors pertains to the ability of US consumption to sustain further…
Flash estimates for several European PMIs were released Tuesday. The results for manufacturing activity were somewhat disappointing. The German manufacturing PMI increased from 41.9 to 42.2, but underperformed expectations of…
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, Q1 earnings results signaled that net interest income (NII) growth is set to decline in US banks. For nearly two years, America’s largest banks enjoyed a…
Q1 earnings results of the largest US banks have demonstrated that the engine of recent growth in profitability, NII, has faltered as funding costs are rising fast. However, the resurgence in non-NII thanks to a revival in corporate…
By the end of 2023, the “soft landing” scenario became the dominant narrative in financial markets. Following the regional banking scare in March of last year, market participants slowly came around to the view that…
Japan’s national CPI inflation unexpectedly cooled in March, falling to 2.7% y/y versus consensus estimates it would remain at 2.8% y/y. Notably, measures of underlying inflation such as core CPI (ex-fresh food) and “…
Unlike most advanced economies that are flirting with recession due to weak demand, the ‘inverted’ US economy is motoring along due to strong supply, from a combination of surging labour participation and surging immigration. We go…
In the near term, favor oil and oil producers outside the Gulf Arab states. Over a 12-month horizon, favor US and North American equities, defensive sectors over cyclicals, and safe-assets. Within cyclicals, stick to energy and…
Headline inflation in Sweden came in at 4.1% in March. Lower food prices as well as lower inflation for recreation and culture were the main contributors to the drop. The biggest positive contributor was housing due to higher…
The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan gauge of consumer sentiment slid from 79.4 to 77.9 in April from 79.4, below expectations. Although both current conditions and expectations disappointed, the deterioration in…