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Monetary

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A Checklist For Turning Defensive

We are not yet ready to downgrade equities on a tactical basis but continue to expect we will eventually do so. We present a checklist of indicators that we are watching to determine when to de-risk.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
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The Case For Short Sterling

In this Insight, we discuss our rationale for a short sterling position.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
No Rush
The message from Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s speech on Wednesday could not be clearer: there’s still no rush. While market participants as well as the FOMC are still pricing in three rate cuts this year, the recent hotter-than-anticipated inflation data…
Daily Insights
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Questions From Europe, Canada, California

Investors around Europe and North America are concerned that the stock market is increasingly overbought and vulnerable to exogenous risks. We agree and have good reasons to fear that festering geopolitical risks and the US election season will deal negative surprises.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
Riksbank Will Be Among The First To Cut Rates
The Swedish krona was among the weakest G10 currencies on Wednesday following the Riksbank meeting. Although the central bank kept the benchmark rate unchanged as expected, the post-meeting communication was on the dovish side. The press release noted that…
Daily Insights
On A Knife-Edge
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, the wave of inflation that the US experienced over the past three years cannot be safely repeated. The unemployment rate is a highly mean-reverting series: When it gets down to very low…
Daily Insights
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Second Quarter 2024 Strategy Outlook: Balancing Act

In this Strategy Outlook we examine why, contrary to popular perception, the odds of a global recession over the next 12 months are rising not falling.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Improving UK Economic Data Surprises Reduce Odds Of Dovish BoE Surprise
The latest batch of economic data out of the UK suggests that economic conditions have recently stabilized. The flash Manufacturing PMI rose by a stronger-than-anticipated 2.4 points to a 20-month high of 49.9 in March – only a hair below the 50 boom-bust…
Daily Insights
Price Pressures Have Not Fully Abated
Both supply- and demand-side forces contributed to the inflation surge in 2021/2022. According to the San Francisco Fed’s estimates, the contribution of demand-side forces to annual core PCE inflation jumped from -0.09 percentage points (pp) in February 2021…
Daily Insights
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Deciphering European Central Banks

Does the recent surprise rate cut by the Swiss National Bank augur other dovish surprises among major central banks in Europe?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary

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