Various indicators of Eurozone wage growth have cooled off in recent months. Notably, the labor costs index eased sharply from a downwardly revised 5.2% y/y to 3.4% y/y in 2023Q4 – the slowest pace of increase since…
The Aussie dollar was among the worst performing G10 currencies on Tuesday on the back of a shift in tone in the Reserve Bank of Australia’s post-meeting statement. Specifically, the RBA replaced the hawkish bias that…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, investors should stay cautious with respect to all Turkish assets. Over the past year, the Turkish Central Bank raised the policy rate significantly, from 8.…
Turkey’s macro policy stance can hardly be called orthodox. And yet, corporate profit margins will contract meaningfully this year. The lira can also fall massively even if inflation eases from the extremely high levels – just as it…
According to BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service, the impact of the global savings glut is among the four structural trends that will drive EM debt going forward. As an asset traditionally further out on the…
Improved consumer morale will not compensate for the fading tailwinds to consumption. Neither will the wealth effects from higher stocks and home prices.
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service, Australia’s macroeconomic environment validates a long AUD position, especially at the crosses. The market expects that the RBA will cut interest rates…
In this Insight, we revisit our long AUD trades, after the upgrade from our attractiveness ranking last week.
The US retail sales report for February delivered a disappointing signal on Thursday. Although retail sales returned to expansion, the 0.6% m/m increase fell below anticipations of a 0.8% m/m rise. In addition, the prior month…