The July employment report revealed large downward revisions and slowing payroll growth, reinforcing our defensive stance. Nonfarm payrolls rose just 73k, and prior months were revised down by 258k, bringing the 3-month average to…
Economic activity and hiring cooled significantly in the first half of the year. The most important question for investors is whether this signals an imminent increase in labor market slack.
The Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) held rates at 15%, guaranteeing a sharp growth slowdown and reinforcing our underweight stance on Brazilian equities versus EM. All Copom board members voted to maintain an ultra-hawkish policy…
The SARB cut rates by 25 bps to 7.00%; our EM strategists expect further easing and recommends short ZAR exposure. Real interest rates remain elevated, and high borrowing costs are intensifying debt sustainability concerns, with…
The Fed will keep rates on hold until the unemployment rate forces its hand.
The BoC held rates at 2.75% for a third consecutive meeting, but a weak growth outlook and contained inflation reinforce our overweight in Canadian bonds. With policy within the 2.25%–3.25% neutral range, the BoC remains…
The Fed held rates steady for a fifth straight meeting, with a divided FOMC and resilient growth keeping policy on hold, supporting our long-duration stance. The target range remains at 4.25%–4.50%, with the statement reflecting only…
Tokyo CPI data confirms persistent inflation pressures in Japan, keeping the BoJ on a hawkish footing and reinforcing our underweight in JGBs and bullish stance on the yen. July Tokyo CPI came in broadly in line, falling to 2.9% y/y…
Our Emerging Markets strategists upgraded Turkey across assets, citing falling inflation, tight policy, and limited external imbalances. The Central Bank of Turkey cut its benchmark 1-week repo rate by 300 bps to 43%, citing…