Much of the focus of investors concerned about lingering price pressures has been on services prices. There is good reason for that. Even though core CPI inflation remains relatively elevated at 3.9% y/y in January, core goods…
Signs that we are entering the last phase of a bubble are building up. Can European equities benefit from a new tech mania?
Households have ramped up their cash holdings since the end of 2019, but the absence of an empirical link between cash and consumption leads us to believe that we’ve modestly overestimated the risk of consumer-driven overheating.
Could a second wave of global inflation be underway? The latest inflation prints in the US and UK showed upside surprises, while there is evidence of increased price pressures in global manufacturing. Combined with the improvements…
The hotter-than-anticipated US PPI report for January prompted a selloff in Treasuries on Friday. The monthly and annual changes in both the headline as well as the core measures of final demand PPI came in above expectations.…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, although the next recession is likely to be mild-to-moderate, the ensuing financial avalanche will be more severe. Valuations are highly stretched and hopes…
In this Insight, we speculate on the outlook for the CHF.
The first two regional fed manufacturing surveys for February delivered strong upside surprises. The New York Fed’s Empire Index surged from -43.7 to -2.4, unwinding its January slump. Similarly, the Philly Fed current…
The UK inflation release for January came in slightly softer than anticipated. Both headline and core CPI were unchanged on year-over-year basis at 4.0% and 5.1%, respectively – below expectations of slight accelerations.…
In a recent Insight we looked at the performance of equities following the start of monetary easing cycles. Specifically, we looked at the historical performance of US cyclical sectors versus defensive sectors at various points…