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Monetary

Will Core Goods Prices Continue Declining?
Much of the focus of investors concerned about lingering price pressures has been on services prices. There is good reason for that. Even though core CPI inflation remains relatively elevated at 3.9% y/y in January, core goods prices fell by 0.3% y/y and are…
Daily Insights
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The 1999 Risk

Signs that we are entering the last phase of a bubble are building up. Can European equities benefit from a new tech mania?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
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Elevated Cash Balances May Not Be A Big Deal

Households have ramped up their cash holdings since the end of 2019, but the absence of an empirical link between cash and consumption leads us to believe that we’ve modestly overestimated the risk of consumer-driven overheating.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
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It’s A Good Time To Buy Inflation Insurance

Could a second wave of global inflation be underway? The latest inflation prints in the US and UK showed upside surprises, while there is evidence of increased price pressures in global manufacturing. Combined with the improvements seen in economic sentiment measures and leading economic indicators in the US and Europe, and potential upside risks to oil prices, we see a strong case for owning more inflation protection in global bond portfolios. Inflation-linked bonds look attractive in this environment, especially in the US.

Global Fixed Income Strategy
Treasury Yields Rise On Hot US PPI
The hotter-than-anticipated US PPI report for January prompted a selloff in Treasuries on Friday. The monthly and annual changes in both the headline as well as the core measures of final demand PPI came in above expectations. Core PPI’s 0.5% m/m increase…
Daily Insights
How Big Will The Equity Avalanche Be?
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, although the next recession is likely to be mild-to-moderate, the ensuing financial avalanche will be more severe. Valuations are highly stretched and hopes that today’s tech leaders will…
Daily Insights
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How Low Can CHF Fall?

In this Insight, we speculate on the outlook for the CHF.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
More Signs Of Overheating?
The first two regional fed manufacturing surveys for February delivered strong upside surprises. The New York Fed’s Empire Index surged from -43.7 to -2.4, unwinding its January slump. Similarly, the Philly Fed current activity index jumped by 15.8 points to…
Daily Insights
Improving UK Growth Momentum Could Delay A BoE Pivot
The UK inflation release for January came in slightly softer than anticipated. Both headline and core CPI were unchanged on year-over-year basis at 4.0% and 5.1%, respectively – below expectations of slight accelerations. The 0.6% m/m decline in the headline…
Daily Insights
Cyclicals Versus Defensives Ahead Of The First Rate Cut
In a recent Insight we looked at the performance of equities following the start of monetary easing cycles. Specifically, we looked at the historical performance of US cyclical sectors versus defensive sectors at various points in time after the Fed’s first…
Daily Insights

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