BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service’s revised forecast is centered on a recession starting in late 2024 or early 2025. The strong pace of US growth has continued into early 2024. Preliminary estimates…
This week’s report explores factors behind the recent rise in the dollar, and whether this could continue in the next month.
Easier financial conditions, rising home prices, rebounding consumer sentiment, and a stabilization in manufacturing activity all augur well for near-term US growth prospects. An unsustainably low savings rate is a key risk to the US…
According to the latest MBA weekly survey, mortgage applications increased 3.7% in the week ending February 2. The contents of the report were mixed. A 12.3% jump in the refinance index drove the increase while mortgage…
After having surged in the second half of 2021 and early 2022, the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker peaked in mid-2022 and has since been on a general downtrend. The latest reading of 5.0% in January is a continuation of…
Chinese domestic stocks have fared quite poorly over the past year. Since late-January 2023, the Shanghai Shenzhen 300 index fell roughly 24% to last week’s low, driven by ongoing weakness in China’s economy and a…
The disinflation to date has been benign because it has come almost entirely from improving supply. But the supply-side tailwind has exhausted, so the last mile of the journey to 2 percent inflation will be the hardest, especially in…
As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the policy rate unchanged at 4.35% on Tuesday. The updated economic forecasts show a downward revision to the growth outlook for this year versus the previous round of…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for February 2024.
