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Monetary

Powell Pushes Back Against March Rate Cut
As expected, the Fed decided to keep policy unchanged at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The changes to the Fed Statement generally indicate that the central bank is preparing to move towards easing monetary policy. Specifically, the…
Daily Insights
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The UK And Japan Are At Wage Inflation Extremes. Why?

We describe and explain the wide disparity of wage inflation across G7 economies, and discuss what it means for the Fed, ECB, BoE, and BoJ policy moves in the coming year. Plus: we highlight two investments ripe for reversal, and two investments ripe for rebound.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Dallas Fed Survey Corroborates Pessimistic Signal From Other Regional Fed Banks
Results of regional Fed surveys suggest that the US manufacturing sector is starting the year on a weak footing. Monday’s report from the Dallas Fed– the last to release its results for January – showed the headline manufacturing activity index collapse from…
Daily Insights
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GFIS Model Bond Portfolio 2023 Review & 2024 Outlook: Once More, With Feeling

We present the performance review of the Global Fixed Income Strategy Model Bond Portfolio for 2023. We also discuss the outlook for 2024 performance based on our Key Views for the year. The portfolio is positioned to benefit from a year where the global backdrop will be one of weak growth and further declines in inflation, leading central bank to begin cutting interest rates.

Global Fixed Income Strategy
A Goldilocks US Economy?
Friday’s US Personal Income and Outlays report for December delivered a positive update on the US economy. On the growth side, the data confirm the signal from the Q4 GDP release that consumer spending continues to power the US economy. The robust 0.5%…
Daily Insights
The Flaws In The Market's "Goldilocks" Narrative
According to BCA Research’s The Bank Credit Analyst service, there are two important flaws in the market’s “Goldilocks” narrative. First, investors are assuming inflation will fully return to target this year because core inflation ex-housing is already at…
Daily Insights
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As Good As It Gets

Low inflation argues for the Fed to move relatively quickly toward rate cuts. Continued above-trend GDP growth poses a risk to this view, but leading indicators point to slower growth in the coming quarters.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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Notes On JPY, CAD, EUR And NOK

We look at the implications for FX from the slew of central bank meetings this week.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Setting The Stage For A Q2 ECB Rate Cut
Government bond yields rallied and yield curves steepened across the Eurozone on Thursday following a less hawkish than anticipated tone from the ECB. As expected, the central bank kept policy rates unchanged and reiterated that it is still premature to…
Daily Insights
China's RRR Cut Is Not Enough
Chinese policymakers have ramped up their efforts to support the economy and financial markets over the past few days. On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced that on February 5 it will cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage…
Daily Insights

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