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Monetary

Bank of Canada: Inching Towards Easier Policy
The Bank of Canada (BoC) kept rates steady at yesterday’s monetary policy meeting, leaving its policy rate at 5%. The central bank presented updated economic projections in a new Monetary Policy Report (MPR), which were little changed from the last MPR in…
Daily Insights
Higher Rates Continue To Weigh On Eurozone Loan Demand
Results of the ECB’s quarterly Bank Lending Survey suggest that the tight monetary policy stance is still weighing on the Eurozone economy.  Banks tightened credit standards for businesses and consumers further in Q4 2023, contributing to the substantial…
Daily Insights
Will The BoJ Contribute To A Yen Rebound?
As expected, the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-easy monetary policy stance at its meeting on Tuesday, making no changes in interest rates or yield curve control. The monetary policy statement highlighted that elevated uncertainty around the economic…
Daily Insights
A BoC/RBA Preview
Ahead of today’s Bank of Canada (BoC) meeting and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting on February 6th, our Global Fixed Income Strategists compared the monetary policy outlooks for both central banks. In Canada, core inflation has already fallen…
Daily Insights
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Australia Versus Canada: Who Will Pivot First?

In this Strategy Insight, we assess the monetary policy path for Australia and Canada in 2024 and we discuss how to profit from a growing divergence between the two economies.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Robert Timper
Should Investors Ignore The LEI's Recession Signal?
The US Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) sent a mixed signal on Monday. On the one hand, the LEI posted its 22nd consecutive month-over-month decline in December – a negative   sign for the economic outlook. On the other hand, the…
Daily Insights
ECB June Rate Cut: Steeper Yield Curve Ahead
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service concludes that investors should go long German curve steepeners. Last week at Davos, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde leaned heavily against the rate cuts priced in the €STR curve.…
Daily Insights
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The Big Bank Beige Book, January 2024

The SIFI banks expressed confidence in their credit outlook for 2024 and expect that credit losses will crest soon, given the reserves they’ve already set aside. Their implicit embrace of the soft-landing narrative suggests to us that the consensus is getting closer to being set up for disappointment. We remain tactically equal weight equities and fixed income but think conditions may soon favor turning defensive.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
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Marginally Better Or Worse?

Disinflation coupled with sticky wage growth is likely to result in either a second wave of inflation or layoffs and a recession. In the meantime, market expectations for sales, growth, and margins are overly optimistic and are inconsistent with macroeconomic headwinds. We recommend gradually realigning the portfolio to a more defensive stance.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
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ECB June Rate Cut: Two Implications

The ECB will begin cutting rates in June, what does this start date imply for the yield curve and European cyclicals?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary

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