The ECB held rates steady for the first time in eight meetings, signaling a slower pace of easing while downside risks and entrenched disinflation support positioning for further cuts. The deposit facility rate remains at 2.0%,…
Recent criticism of the Fed centers on post-GFC policy, but proposed solutions would risk policy incoherence and higher long-end yields. Criticism covers the Fed’s reliance on balance sheet policies aimed at easing financial…
RBA minutes confirmed a cautious approach to easing, reinforcing our underweight in ACGBs and long AUD/NZD stance. The decision to hold at 3.85% surprised markets expecting a 25 bps cut. Governor Bullock had framed the decision…
Rising political pressure on the Fed risks undermining policy credibility, risking a de-anchoring of long-term inflation expectations. The Trump administration keeps escalating attacks on Fed Chair Powell. While the Fed…
The Q2 Business Outlook Survey showed weaker sentiment and subdued hiring and investment intentions, reinforcing the case for deeper BoC rate cuts and our overweight in Canadian bonds. The BOS indicator ticked down to -2.4 from -2.1…
Consumer sentiment improved modestly in July, but remains at levels that still point to subdued spending, reinforcing our defensive stance. The preliminary University of Michigan index rose to 61.8 from 60.7 in June. Expectations…
Canada’s inflation re-acceleration makes a BoC July cut unlikely, but softening growth and tight financial conditions keep easing on the table. June headline inflation rose to 1.9% y/y from 1.7%, roughly in line with expectations.…
Equities have retraced sharply from Liberation Day lows, but renewed policy risk and mispriced volatility keep us tactically cautious. The Trump administration softened its trade stance as equities neared bear market territory in…
June’s strong Canadian jobs data does not argue against further easing and a CGBs overweight. Employment rose by 83.1k versus expectations for no growth, the first increase since January. The unemployment rate fell to 6.9% from 7.0…