Canada’s stronger currency and tightening financial conditions point to further BoC easing and support long Canadian bond positions. The CAD has appreciated this year alongside the global push to diversify away from USD assets, which…
Investors should modestly underweight equities in their portfolios and look to turn more aggressively defensive once the whites of the recession’s eyes are visible. We think that will happen within the next few months.
Contained Canadian inflation and soft macro conditions support our overweight on Canadian government bonds. May CPI was in line with expectations, with headline inflation holding at 1.7% y/y and core measures slowing to 3.0%, the…
Deflationary pressures and weak core Europe growth support CE3 bond longs as rate cuts loom. The Czech and Hungarian central banks held rates steady at 3.5% and 6.5% this week, following Poland’s earlier decision to keep rates…
Dovish signals from Fed Governors Waller and Bowman increase the likelihood of a rate cut as early as July, supporting long front-end positions and steepeners. Last week’s FOMC meeting revealed a split between hawkish participants…
In this Insight, we highlight our strong conviction trades based on the central bank meetings held by the Bank of England, the Norges Bank, the Swiss National Bank and the Riksbank.
Turkey’s tight policy stance will weigh on growth and earnings, reinforcing our bearish view on Turkish equities. The central bank held rates at 46% and maintained a hawkish bias, consistent with efforts to bring inflation down from…
European central banks are pivoting quickly amid deflationary pressure, reinforcing our long UK Gilts and short GBP trades. The Norges Bank surprised with a 25 bps cut to 4.25%, abandoning its hawkish stance. The Swiss National Bank…
In this Insight, we look at the best trade idea from the recent rate cut by the Riksbank.
While we anticipate higher inflation in June, it looks increasingly likely that the price impact from tariffs will be less aggressive and long-lasting than many feared.