Monetary
We maintain our view that China’s economic growth in the coming months will remain lackluster. Beijing's recent measures to provide additional financing may help to bridge the gap in government spending in the rest of 2023 and into 2024, but the impact on growth will be very limited.
The Bank of Japan adjusted the language of its Monetary Policy Statement on Tuesday to indicate that it will allow greater flexibility it its yield curve control policy (YCC). It indicated that although the target level of 10-year JGB yields remains unchanged…
Eurozone economic data sent a positive signal on Monday. Preliminary CPI releases from Germany and Spain show price pressures continue to moderate. In Germany, the harmonized index declined by 0.2% m/m while the annual rate of change eased from 4.3% y/y to…
The European money market curve anticipates three rate cuts by October 2024. This pricing is appropriate considering the outlook for European growth next year. BCA’s Europe strategist expect a recession in the second half of the year, which will force the ECB…
Friday's Tokyo CPI release suggests that inflationary pressures are picking back up again in Japan. Headline inflation accelerated to 3.3% y/y – surprising expectations it would remain unchanged at 2.8% y/y. The ex-fresh food component also unexpectedly rose…
A look at recent data on economic growth, inflation and the labor market, and a discussion of the implications for Fed policy and bond strategy.
The US Q3 GDP release delivered a positive signal about the US economy. Economic growth accelerated from 2.1% q/q to 4.9% q/q on an annualized basis – beating expectations of 4.5%. A significant acceleration in consumption growth (from 0.8% to 4.0%) accounted…
As expected, the ECB kept policy on hold on Thursday. In a unanimous decision, it maintained the deposit rate at an all-time high of 4% following 10 consecutive increases. Ultimately, the tone of the communication was on the dovish side. True, the ECB…
Results of the October German IFO survey corroborate the positive signal from the latest ZEW survey. The headline Business Climate Index increased for the first time since April, rising from 85.8 to 86.9, above expectations of 86.0. This was driven by…
As expected, the Bank of Canada kept its target for the overnight rate unchanged at 5% for the second meeting in a row on Wednesday. The Bank cited clear evidence of the impact of elevated interest rates on demand — especially in durable and semi-durable…