August brought some respite for German factories struggling with poor demand this year. After falling by 11.3% m/m in the prior month, German factory orders rebounded by 3.9% m/m in August – beating expectations of a 1.5% m…
An update to our US bond strategy following this morning’s employment report.
The results of the Bank of England’s latest monthly Decision Maker Panel survey reduces pressure on policymakers to tighten further. Business expectations regarding output price inflation over the coming year fell from 5…
As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the official cash rate at 5.5% on Wednesday, keeping policy unchanged for the third consecutive meeting. The press release underscored that while monetary policy is weighing on…
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service recommends a barbelled allocation across the Treasury curve. The Treasury curve bear-steepened in September. The 2-year/10-year Treasury slope steepened 32 bps on the month and…
There is a connection between the bond market meltdown and Republican Party’s meltdown. Investors should expect more short-term financial market volatility as a result of the triple whammy of high bond yields, high oil prices, and a…
We unveil the ‘Joshi rule’ real-time recession indicator as a much better version of the Federal Reserve’s own ‘Sahm rule’. And we identify what would trigger these recession indicators in this week’s and future US jobs reports. Plus…
The Australian dollar was among the worst performing major currencies on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia held the cash rate at 4.1% for the fourth consecutive month. In her post meeting statement, newly appointed…
The Citi US Inflation Surprise Index has risen over the past two months after having bottomed at a three-year low in July. The good news is that the level of the index remains negative after having first fallen below zero in…
We present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for October 2023.