In the monthly Daily Insights Survey we conducted over the past week, we asked about our readers’ outlook for oil prices, Fed policy, and the global economy. On the outlook for crude oil, a larger share of respondents…
Within alternatives, BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service favors Private Credit since yields are in double-digits and lenders are in a strong negotiating position. Private Credit (Overweight): …
Downside risks to equities are building. Rates, the dollar, and energy prices will remain elevated into yearend. This trifecta makes a soft landing less likely than before and hurts corporate profits and multiples. However, high cash…
The US Personal Income and Outlays report for August sent a positive signal about the disinflationary trend. The core PCE deflator – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – slowed to a 33-month low of 0.1% m/m…
The BoJ remains an outlier among global DM central banks. While many of its peers are now debating whether to end their rate tightening cycles, the Japanese central bank has not even started raising interest rates yet.…
In Section I, we note that the recent surge in long-maturity government bond yields is symptomatic of a sharp reduction in market expectations for a soft-landing economic outcome. This underscores that the US and other developed…
German inflation delivered an optimistic signal about the disinflation trend on Thursday. The headline CPI EU harmonized index collapsed from 6.4% y/y to 4.3% y/y in September– its lowest level since September 2021 and…
Financial conditions tightened meaningfully in the first three quarters of 2022 as market participants anticipated an aggressive monetary tightening cycle. However, this tightening phase ended in late-2022. Indeed, economic…