In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of 2023 and beyond.
On the surface, US housing market data is sending conflicting signals. On the one hand, both the FHFA as well as the S&P CoreLogic gauges of US house prices surprised to the upside in July and are now expanding on both a…
One of the few things US equity investors agree upon these days is that the S&P 500 is expensive whether it is relative to history, other asset classes, or the level of interest rates. But how overvalued is the market? To…
Bulls and bears have capitulated, and the majority of the clients surveyed expect a rangebound market in the near term. Our fair value PE NTM indicates that the S&P 500 is only modestly overvalued. The continued outperformance…
As expected, the Bank of Japan voted unanimously to keep policy unchanged on Friday. The policy rate remains at -0.1% and the central bank maintains Yield Curve Control (YCC) on 10-year JGB yields. To the extent that the BoJ…
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service, nonfinancial corporate businesses have been more insulated from rising interest rates than they typically are during major rate-hike campaigns, but the buffer is…
US fiscal, monetary, and foreign policies are unlikely to deliver any dovish surprises for investors in Q4, due to the impending government shutdown, persistent inflation, and instability among OPEC+ and China.
Thursday’s release of US weekly jobless claims and continuing claims delivered a positive surprise about labor market conditions. The decline in initial jobless claims to an eight-month low of 201 thousand came in below…
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 5-4 in favor of maintaining its bank rate at 5.25% on Thursday. The four members that voted against the pause all preferred a 25-basis point rate increase. The tight…
Collapsing German producer prices continue to indicate that inflationary pressures are moderating in the Eurozone. Total PPI declined by a record 12.6% y/y in August following a 6.0% y/y drop in July. While the annual decline…