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Monetary

Record German PPI Deflation Confirms Benign Inflation Outlook
Collapsing German producer prices continue to indicate that inflationary pressures are moderating in the Eurozone. Total PPI declined by a record 12.6% y/y in August following a 6.0% y/y drop in July. While the annual decline mainly reflects the impact of…
Daily Insights
On The Underperformance Of Scandinavian Currencies
Scandinavian currencies are bearing the brunt of the recent US dollar strength. The Swedish krona and Norwegian krone are the worst performing G10 currencies since the DXY’s mid-July bottom, losing 8.6% and 7.6% of their value vis-à-vis the USD, respectively.…
Daily Insights
UK Inflation Surprise Opens The Door To A Less Hawkish BoE
The August UK inflation report produced a large downside surprise. Headline CPI rose +0.3% month-on-month, versus expectations of a +0.7% increase. Year-over-year headline CPI inflation slowed to 6.7% from 6.8%, a sizeable miss versus the consensus forecast…
Daily Insights
Higher For Longer
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, the 2006/07 roadmap remains a good one for bond investors. The Fed held the funds rate steady this afternoon and made no material changes to its policy statement. That said, meeting participants did…
Daily Insights
A Little Higher For A lot Longer

A discussion of today’s FOMC meeting and its investment implications.

US Bond Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Ryan Swift
Why 2 Percent Inflation Is NOT ‘Mission Accomplished’

The biggest misunderstanding in the markets right now is that to keep expected inflation well-anchored at 2 percent, inflation must <i>undershoot</i> 2 percent for some time. This implies that interest rate futures curves are mispriced, and that the probability of a ‘soft landing’ is lower than assumed. Plus: we show that the rally in oil has become fractally fragile, and recommend a tactical underweight.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Another BoC Rate Hike?
Tuesday’s release of Canadian CPI in August raised concerns that inflationary pressures are picking up again. Headline CPI inflation rose from 3.3% y/y to 4.0% y/y – above expectations of 3.8% y/y and marking the second consecutive increase after it fell to…
Daily Insights
Re-Estimating Net Interest Expense
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service concludes that recent BEA data are understating corporate net interest expense by a significant amount. Given the recent climb in interest rates, it would be reasonable to expect that corporate interest expense would…
Daily Insights
Are Higher Interest Rates Hurting Corporate Balance Sheets?

Top-down measures of nonfinancial corporate sector balance sheet health have been flattered in recent quarters by inaccurate data on interest expense. After correcting for the inaccurate data, we see that our best measures of corporate balance sheet health show a persistent steady deterioration.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Inflation Is Still A Concern
Google searches for “inflation” by US users have been on a general downward trend over the past year. This is in line with developments in realized inflation as annual core CPI inflation peaked last September. Similarly, market- and survey-based measures of…
Daily Insights

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