We comment on Jay Powell’s Jackson Hole speech and recommend shifting to a barbelled allocation along the Treasury curve.
Eurozone money supply data reflect the impact of the ECB’s aggressive tightening campaign on the region’s economy. Data released on Monday showed the July M3 measure of broad money (the sum of M2, repurchase…
Today’s Strategy Report chartbook presents the data underpinning our view that both inflation and growth are slowing, likely pointing to a recession beginning sometime in the first half of next year. We are tactically equal weight…
Germany’s IFO survey sent a downbeat message on Friday. The headline Business Climate Index fell by 1.7 points to 85.7, below expectations of 86.8 and near the 85.2 level at which it bottomed in October. A 2.4-point…
The final release of the University of Michigan’s gauge of US consumer inflation expectations unexpectedly rose in August. It shows 1-year ahead inflation expectations increased by a tenth of a percentage point to 3.5% (an…
The Treasury market’s reaction to Fed Chair Jermone Powell’s Jackson Hole speech was relatively tame on Friday. Although there was some volatility during the speech, the 10-year yield ended the day broadly unchanged.…
In this report, we review our FX trade recommendations with suggestions on how to position for the next few months.
In this report, we assess the best opportunities in inflation-linked bonds in the major developed economies, based on trends in growth, inflation and the stance of monetary policies in each country. We conclude that the environment…
Earlier this week, EUR/JPY closed at a fresh 15-year high, bringing its year-to-date gain to 14%, before losing some ground over the subsequent two days. To the extent that the recent increase in global bond yields continues to…