The flash August S&P Global PMI data released on Wednesday painted a picture of softer global growth, while also hinting that Europe is on the cusp of recession. The composite PMI for the euro area fell by 1.6 versus the…
Chinese authorities have recently ratcheted up support for the currency. The PBoC continues to set its daily yuan fixing at a stronger-than-expected rate, with the yuan midpoint (a reference for trading that caps the range…
The latest update of the Atlanta Fed’s Home Ownership Affordability Monitor (HOAM) – which gauges a median-income households’ ability to absorb annual costs related to owning a median-priced home – is now…
Investors should prepare for an equity market pullback this fall, prefer Treasuries over stocks, and US defensives over cyclicals. A pullback could also morph into another bear market given that monetary policy is tight, policy…
German producer prices indicate that inflationary pressures continue to moderate. The producer price index’s 6.0% y/y drop in July is more pronounced than the anticipated 5.1% y/y decline and marks the first annual decrease…
Chinese banks surprised markets with a more modest-than-anticipated rate cut on Monday. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was reduced by 10 basis points to 3.45% – slightly above expectations of a bigger cut to 3.40%.…
In an Insight last month, we noted that the Global Investment Strategy service increased its subjective odds for the resurgence of US inflation later this year or early next year from 20% to 30%. Here are some of the data points…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, German yields are unlikely to experience a decisive break out that would carry them to 3%. Five economic forces suggest that German yields are unlikely to…
Before doctors prescribe treatments to a patient, they first make a diagnosis. The success of the treatment is contingent upon the accuracy of the diagnosis. The same is true for a country’s economy. Many commentators…
Despite the underwhelming economic recovery, Chinese authorities remain reluctant to open wide stimulus taps as much as they have in past economic downturns. This is corroborated by the PBoC’s marginal interest rate cut…