According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy and Global Investment Strategy services, most indications of Japanese inflation are pointing to upside surprises. This will boost interest-rate differentials in…
While the bearish bond trade currently has a lot of momentum, we continue to think that Treasury yields are close to a cyclical peak and will be lower on a 6-12 month horizon.
In this special report, we discuss whether the economic conditions necessary for a stronger yen (and higher JGB yields) will materialize over the next 12-to-18 months.
Despite a decline from 7.9% to 6.8% in July, the UK’s headline CPI surprised to the upside. The slowdown in headline CPI mostly reflects the deceleration in the annual inflation for housing, water, electricity, gas and…
Japanese real GDP grew at an annualized pace of 6% year-on-year in Q2. Reading the tea leaves from the release, public investment rose by 5% quarter-on-quarter annualized, while residential investment jumped by a whopping 7.7%.…
The selloff in US Treasuries has accelerated in recent weeks and the 10-year US Treasury yield is quickly approaching the cyclical peak of 4.25% that was set last October. While momentum is certainly on the side of the bond bears…
In a recently published report, BCA’s Bank Credit Analyst service reviewed the BCA Valuation Index, alongside three other US equity indicators which are published in Section III of each month’s report. The other…
Inspired by a client’s questions, we examine the rationale behind the implementation of the trailing stop governing our near-term asset allocation recommendations.
The preliminary release of the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment survey shows US households’ 1-year ahead inflation expectations unexpectedly ticked down from 3.4% to 3.3% in August, surprising consensus…