The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates on hold at 4.1% on Tuesday, surprising expectations of a 25bps increase. Governor Philip Lowe’s statement underscores that the decision “will provide further time…
History suggests that a “soft landing” is highly unlikely after such an aggressive Fed tightening cycle. The rally could continue for a little longer but, on the 12-month horizon, market risks are very skewed to the downside.
The Eurozone economy returned to expansion in the second quarter with real GDP rising by 0.3% q/q – beating expectations of 0.2% q/q. This follows an upwardly revised 0.0% in Q1 and a 0.1% contraction in Q4 2022. In…
Last Friday, the Central Bank of Chile became the first major Latin American monetary authority to cut rates, thereby beginning the EM monetary easing cycle. In its latest meeting, board members decided to reduce the policy…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, it is too early to conclude that the Fed can stop raising rates. Consumption and real income growth are highly correlated. If inflation continues to fall,…
The ECB’s tone has changed decisively. Intransigent forward guidance is gone; data dependency is in. What does this transition mean for the path of European interest rates and the euro?
US economic data released on Friday continued the string of good news about the US economy. On the inflation front, core PCE inflation – the Fed’s preferred gauge of underlying price pressures – softened to 0…
On Friday, the Bank of Japan announced an important tweak to its yield curve control (YCC) program. Although it maintained the 0.5% cap on 10-year bond yields, it indicated that it will manage the program with “greater…
The DXY will continue to have near-term upside, as economic growth holds up in the US, while it deteriorates in other parts of the world. Remain constructive on the DXY at current levels, but pivot to a short position on evidence US…