A look at recent US data on economic growth and inflation, with an update on the implications for monetary policy and bond yields.
On the surface, US economic data delivered strong upside surprises on Thursday. The advance estimate of GDP growth shows economic activity accelerated from 2.0% to 2.4% in Q2 – surprising expectations of a slowdown to 1.8…
As expected, the ECB delivered a 25 basis point rate increase on Thursday, raising the policy rate to its 2001 record high of 3.75% and marking its ninth consecutive rate increase. The most important takeaway from the meeting is…
Looking at the complete picture of GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment, it is understandable to assume the Fed is doing much better than it expected. GDP growth is tracking to exceed the Fed's forecast, while the outlook…
Australia’s June monthly CPI release shows inflationary pressures continue to moderate. Headline CPI inflation receded to 5.4% y/y -- in line with expectations – following a downwardly revised 5.5% y/y in May. To the…
The July FOMC meeting proceeded pretty much as expected. The Fed hiked by 25 basis points, bringing the target range for the funds rate up to 5.25%-5.50%. The forward rate guidance included in the post-meeting statement was also…
A brief recap of the July FOMC meeting and its investment implications.
Tuesday’s German IFO survey corroborates the downbeat message from Monday’s flash PMI estimate highlighting weak economic conditions. The headline Business Climate Index dropped 1.3 points to 87.3 in July –…
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, inflation will fall during the next 12 months, but not by as much as markets expect. Investors should take advantage of this valuation opportunity by entering 2-year/10-…
Stay cautious on Chinese stocks. Equity investors should use any rebound in onshore stock prices to downgrade A-shares from overweight to neutral within global and EM equity portfolios. Remain underweight Chinese investable/offshore…