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Monetary

A Seasonal Illusion Threatens Goldilocks Markets

Collapsed complexity, plus the unwinding of favourable base effects and favourable seasonal adjustments to the inflation and jobs numbers, all pose a danger to the Goldilocks market.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Is The RBA Done With Rate Hikes?
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates on hold at 4.1% on Tuesday, surprising expectations of a 25bps increase. Governor Philip Lowe’s statement underscores that the decision “will provide further time to assess the impact of” the 4 percentage…
Daily Insights
Monthly Portfolio Update: Slower Inflation, Then Slower Growth

History suggests that a “soft landing” is highly unlikely after such an aggressive Fed tightening cycle. The rally could continue for a little longer but, on the 12-month horizon, market risks are very skewed to the downside.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
China’s Infrastructure Investment: A Deceleration In 2023H2

The trajectory of China’s infrastructure investment in 2023H2 will be like what occurred in 2021H2. Growth will likely drop from the current nominal 10% to 0-2% in the next six months. China will continue promoting environmentally friendly infrastructure projects that may prevent a contraction in infrastructure investment in 2023H2.

China Investment Strategy
Falling Inflation Could Sow The Seeds Of Its Own Demise
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, it is too early to conclude that the Fed can stop raising rates. Consumption and real income growth are highly correlated. If inflation continues to fall, real wages will rise further. If that…
Daily Insights
Eurozone Growth Improves, Core Inflation Sticky
The Eurozone economy returned to expansion in the second quarter with real GDP rising by 0.3% q/q – beating expectations of 0.2% q/q. This follows an upwardly revised 0.0% in Q1 and a 0.1% contraction in Q4 2022. In particular, Ireland (+3.3%) and Lithuania,…
Daily Insights
Chile Kicks Off The EM Rate Cutting Cycle
Last Friday, the Central Bank of Chile became the first major Latin American monetary authority to cut rates, thereby beginning the EM monetary easing cycle.  In its latest meeting, board members decided to reduce the policy rate by a whopping 100 basis…
Daily Insights
Data Dependent

The ECB’s tone has changed decisively. Intransigent forward guidance is gone; data dependency is in. What does this transition mean for the path of European interest rates and the euro?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
US: Inflationary Pressures Moderate, Consumption Growth Accelerates
US economic data released on Friday continued the string of good news about the US economy. On the inflation front, core PCE inflation – the Fed’s preferred gauge of underlying price pressures – softened to 0.165% m/m in June. On an annualized basis, this…
Daily Insights
BoJ Commits To "Greater Flexibility"
On Friday, the Bank of Japan announced an important tweak to its yield curve control (YCC) program. Although it maintained the 0.5% cap on 10-year bond yields, it indicated that it will manage the program with “greater flexibility” such that the 0.5% level is…
Daily Insights

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