Monetary Policy
The Bank of Thailand kept its policy rate unchanged at 1%, against a backdrop of weak domestic demand and a still-elevated energy import bill. Although inflation has slowed and domestic demand subdued, the BoT continues to face significant imported inflation…
The US Treasury department’s attempts at yield suppression are doomed to fail unless the Federal Reserve gets involved.
If bond yields rise due to widening bond term premiums or escalating inflation expectations, Bessenomics is unlikely to avert a stock-bond collision. Buy back gold mining stocks.
The Riksbank held rates at 1.75%; hikes remain unlikely given soft growth, rising unemployment, and below-target inflation. Policymakers kept the door open to a hike later this year, citing inflation risks from supply disruptions tied to the Middle East…
The July Fed minutes showed a broader hawkish bias than the vote suggested, but softer data since the meeting have reduced the urgency to hike. The FOMC held rates at 3.5%-3.75% despite three dissents in favor of a 25 bps hike. The minutes revealed support…
Bank Indonesia held rates at 5.75%, reinforcing our EM strategists’ view that earlier hikes were temporary measures to support the rupiah rather than a shift away from growth-first policy. Inflationary fiscal policy remains a concern as the government…
The RBA's tightening cycle is likely over, despite Governor Bullock's hawkish tone. The cash rate was left unchanged at 4.35% for a second consecutive meeting, in line with consensus, after three hikes earlier this year. The decision was unanimous. Updated…
July's upside surprise in Swedish core inflation should not derail an on-hold Riksbank. Headline CPIF eased to 0.7% y/y (-0.3% m/m), broadly in line with estimates. CPIF excluding energy accelerated to 0.6% y/y (0.4% m/m), above both economists’ estimates and…
Brazil’s central bank cut rates for a fourth consecutive meeting, but inflation risks persist. The move followed a softer-than-expected inflation print, and policymakers signaled that more cuts are likely. Our EM strategists have argued that both policymakers…
The BoJ signaled further hikes, but not the more aggressive tightening needed to stabilize the JPY. The Bank of Japan held rates at 1% as expected in an 8-1 decision, with board member Takata dissenting in favor of a 25 bps hike. The BoJ acknowledged more…