Downside risks to equities are building. Rates, the dollar, and energy prices will remain elevated into yearend. This trifecta makes a soft landing less likely than before and hurts corporate profits and multiples. However, high cash…
The bear market in US bonds will likely end with a bang rather than a whimper. Even during the secular US bond bull market of 1982-2021, cyclical bond bear markets ended only after an eruption of financial turmoil. It would be…
Bulls and bears have capitulated, and the majority of the clients surveyed expect a rangebound market in the near term. Our fair value PE NTM indicates that the S&P 500 is only modestly overvalued. The continued outperformance…
US fiscal, monetary, and foreign policies are unlikely to deliver any dovish surprises for investors in Q4, due to the impending government shutdown, persistent inflation, and instability among OPEC+ and China.
The global downturn will be shallower than it was in 2008 and in 2020 but will last for longer. The primary reason for a more prolonged downturn is that policymakers in the US, Europe, and China will be reluctant to proactively and…
While we are sympathetic to the view that the Fed could temporarily achieve a soft landing, we are skeptical that it could stick that landing for very long. Stocks could strengthen into year-end, with small caps potentially leading…
In this report, we review our European fixed income strategy recommendations ahead of tomorrow’s critical ECB meeting
If we look at global growth as an aircraft, the plane is experiencing failing engines and will lose more altitude in the coming months. Yet, neither Chinese authorities, nor the Fed or the ECB will be quick to come to the rescue as…
The broader rally that started in June is premised on a Goldilocks narrative that will prove to be a fairy tale. Either by stubborn inflation. Or, by higher unemployment that shows that the war on inflation is far from costless. Or,…