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Monetary Policy

Three Scenarios In Which The US Can Avoid A Recession

Although not our base case, there is a path for the US economy to avoid a recession over the next few years. We see the risks to stocks as tilted to the upside in the near term but to the downside over a 12-month horizon.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
On Breakouts And Breakdowns

In this report, we dissect which markets have broken out and which ones have not, and reflect what this entails for our global macro view. Also, we analyze how the S&P 500 has been taking its cues from a change in the inflation trend. Yet, inflation dynamics are complex, and a falling inflation rate does not mean that the inflation menace has been eliminated.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
Eurozone Investors Are (More) Pessimistic
On Monday, the Eurozone Sentix sent a pessimistic signal about investor confidence in the Eurozone economy. The headline index dropped from -17.0 to -22.5 in July, significantly below expectations of a more muted deterioration to -17.9. Both the Expectations…
Daily Insights
Further US Goods Disinflation Ahead
The latest update of the Manheim Used Vehicle Price Index provides a positive signal for US goods inflation. It shows used car prices fell by -4.2% m/m (-10.1% y/y) in June – its third consecutive monthly decline following a brief pickup in…
Daily Insights
Inflation Nowcast Points To A Moderation In June
Last week’s labor market data signal that US employment conditions remain strong – solidifying the case for a 25 bps rate hike at the Fed’s next meeting later this month (see The Numbers). Yet in order for the Fed to continue tightening beyond July,…
Daily Insights
US Hiring Slows, Yet Wage Growth Remains Strong
On the surface, the lower-than-anticipated job gains suggest that US labor market conditions softened last month. Friday’s jobs report revealed that the increase in nonfarm payrolls slowed from a downwardly revised 306 thousand to 209 thousand in June – below…
Daily Insights
Another BoC Rate Hike?
Canadian hiring surprised to the upside in June. The 60 thousand increase in employment last month – the highest since January – came in triple expectations of a 20 thousand rise and follows a 17 thousand decline in May. The increase mainly reflects a sharp…
Daily Insights
Resilient US Labor Market Prompts Equity And Bond Selloff
Global stocks fell and sovereign bond yields surged on Thursday following the release of stronger-than-anticipated US labor market data. Data released by Challenger, Gray, & Christmas showed job cuts declined to 40,709 last month from 80,089 in May.…
Daily Insights
Eurozone Retail Sales Stabilize
Yesterday we highlighted that falling producer prices foreshadow lower CPI inflation in the Eurozone and argued that this dynamic is positive for the bloc’s consumption outlook. Easing price pressures will ultimately lift real wages, reducing the drag on…
Daily Insights
A Toxic Mix

On one hand, China will be exporting deflation to the rest of the world. On the other hand, core inflation is sticky in the US, making the Fed err on the hawkish side. Altogether, these crosscurrents are creating a toxic mix for risk asset prices.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan

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