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Monetary Policy

June In Review
The performance of financial markets continued to improve in June, with most of the major financial assets we track generating positive abnormal returns. The US equity rally – which had been narrowly concentrated among tech stocks for most of the year –…
Daily Insights
Hot Growth, Cold Prices
Our US Bond Strategy service responds to recent data releases which showed that real economic growth and the labor market are surprisingly resilient, while inflation pressures continued to decline. The 10-year Treasury yield broke above its top-end trading…
Daily Insights
US Housing: Rebound Or Head Fake?
In their just-published update of US housing market conditions,  our colleagues at the BCA Bank Credit Analyst focus on whether May’s strong showing in new home starts and sales in May – up 21% and 12%, respectively – is a head fake or the beginning of a…
Daily Insights
A Macro Playbook For Asset Allocators

We build a four-stage business cycle framework based on economic growth and capacity utilization, and then analyze historical returns for most major asset allocation decisions for each stage. Given that we are in the early recession stage (negative growth coupled and an overheated economy), our framework recommends a defensive positioning across all asset classes.

Global Asset Allocation by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Third Quarter 2023 Strategy Outlook – They Never See It Coming

In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of 2023 and beyond.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Where Is The BRL Headed?
Since the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) released its latest monetary policy minutes on June 27th, the Brazilian real has depreciated for three days in a row. Will the BRL resume its strengthening trajectory, or is the currency set to relapse in the coming…
Daily Insights
The Inflation Expectations Time-Bomb
Our Counterpoint service argues that it is not enough that inflation stabilizes at 3 percent for inflation expectations to be anchored and central banks must make inflation undershoot 2 percent for some time to prevent a repeat of the 1970s. The team…
Daily Insights
European Inflation Is Slowing, But Still Too High For The ECB's Liking
The preliminary inflation prints for June in the major euro area economies highlight a growing divergence in inflation outcomes. There was good news: headline CPI inflation in Italy fell to 6.7% in June from 8.0% in May, while Spanish headline inflation fell…
Daily Insights
Conversations With Ms. Mea: Should Investors Fight The Fed?

The combination of a global manufacturing recession and tight/tightening policy is raising a red flag for global non-TMT stocks. In China, households are entering a liquidity trap, and deflationary pressures are heightening. Authorities need to reduce interest rates considerably and allow the currency to depreciate. By doing so, China will export its deflation to the rest of the world.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
Australia And The Global Disinflation Battle
There have been big downside surprises to inflation over the last few weeks. Today, the May monthly print of Australian inflation (covers 67% of all items), came in at 5.6%, versus 6.8% the previous month. This followed a downside surprise to Canadian…
Daily Insights

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