The normalization of oil storage markets in the Northern Hemisphere; strong demand, aided by China stimulus this year; and continued production discipline supports our view Brent prices likely have bottomed, and will move higher from…
This Strategy Insight discusses the bond market and currency implications of the Fed’s “hawkish pause”.
UK gilts have sold off sharply over the past month, particularly at the short end of the yield curve. The two-year yield has risen by over 100bps since mid-May, while 10-year yields have increased by just over 70bps –…
As expected, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday in order to give policymakers time to assess the impact of the aggressive tightening cycle. Chair Powell indicated that the decision to pause is consistent with…
As the major central banks once again mull their policy options, they face a daunting task. They must phase-transition inflation back to imperceptible, without phase-transitioning unemployment to perceptible. This report explains why…
This Strategy Insight discusses the bond market and currency implications of the Fed’s “hawkish pause”.
Policymakers will likely continue to stimulate domestic demand via targeted measures and piecemeal stimulus. Yet, the economy will disappoint unless Beijing provides “irrigation-style” stimulus. The latter is not our base case…
Policymakers will likely continue to stimulate domestic demand via targeted measures and piecemeal stimulus. Yet, the economy will disappoint unless Beijing provides “irrigation-style” stimulus. The latter is not our base case…
With the 1-year CPI swap rate trading at 2.3%, the market was already priced for a significant drop in inflation heading into yesterday’s May CPI release. The results of the report should only reinforce those expectations…