Monetary Policy
The September employment report probably won’t convince enough hawks to vote for a rate cut in December.
Indian stocks have further downside in absolute terms as profits disappoint. Their underperformance versus the EM equity benchmark, however, is late, which warrants a shift from underweight to neutral allocation.
The Nordic central banks are now aligned in pause mode, but their economies are diverging. With Swedish prospects improving and Norwegian headwinds mounting, we are turning overweight on Swedish equities and shorting NOK/SEK.
The Bank of England will resume rate cuts in December after the autumn budget is passed. Today’s Strategy Insight discusses what this means for UK gilts and the pound.
Markets are increasingly pricing an end to the global easing cycle, with many central banks expected to remain on hold. But uncertainty remains high, and policy surprises are likely going into 2026. This Strategy Report breaks down the current drivers behind G10 central bank policies, and how to position for the next moves across FX and fixed income.
Markets are increasingly pricing an end to the global easing cycle, with many central banks expected to remain on hold. But uncertainty remains high, and policy surprises are likely going into 2026. This Strategy Report breaks down the current drivers behind G10 central bank policies, and how to position for the next moves across FX and fixed income.
The Fed cut rates today, but a follow-up rate cut in December is uncertain. It will depend, in large part, on who wins a debate about the neutral rate of interest.
Beijing’s quiet pivot toward RMB strength and a deep valuation discount set the stage for a multi-year appreciation. Our latest FX Insight explores why we see the CNY rising to 6.5–6.8 versus the USD over the next year.
Same policy rate, very different expectations. We break down why policy convergence between the Fed and BoE is THE fixed income trade for year-end.
Monetary policy divergences are re-emerging. We rely on BCA’s Central Bank Monitor to assess the current policy stance of major central banks, and highlight the tactical opportunities across bond markets and currencies.