Monetary Policy
Policymakers will likely continue to stimulate domestic demand via targeted measures and piecemeal stimulus. Yet, the economy will disappoint unless Beijing provides “irrigation-style” stimulus. The latter is not our base case scenario.
Policymakers will likely continue to stimulate domestic demand via targeted measures and piecemeal stimulus. Yet, the economy will disappoint unless Beijing provides “irrigation-style” stimulus. The latter is not our base case scenario.
Policymakers will likely continue to stimulate domestic demand via targeted measures and piecemeal stimulus. Yet, the economy will disappoint unless Beijing provides “irrigation-style” stimulus. The latter is not our base case scenario.
With the 1-year CPI swap rate trading at 2.3%, the market was already priced for a significant drop in inflation heading into yesterday’s May CPI release. The results of the report should only reinforce those expectations. While the monthly growth rates of…
The message from the ZEW economic research institute’s June survey was mixed. On the one hand, the German Indicator of Economic Sentiment unexpectedly ticked up from -10.7 to -8.5. While the negative reading indicates that the pessimists continue to outnumber…
US equity market moves have recently shifted in favor of small caps. After underperforming the S&P 500 by 16% between the start of March and beginning of June, the S&P 600’s recent 6% gain is greater than its large-cap counterpart’s 2.8% increase. …
Results of the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations sent a positive signal about short-term inflation expectations. Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations dropped by 0.3 percentage point to a two-year low of 4.1% in May. Moreover, median…
According to the Exposure Index compiled by the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM), active risk managers are increasing their net exposure to equities. The range of responses to the weekly survey include 200% leveraged long,…
The latest increase in US weekly jobless claims came in above consensus estimates. Initial jobless claims jumped to 261 thousand in the week ended June 3 – above expectations of a 235 thousand increase. This marks the highest level since October 2021. Rising…
The final Q1 GDP release shows the Euro Area economy contracted by 0.1% q/q last quarter, a downwards revision from estimates of a 0.1% expansion. To the extent that this follows a 0.1% q/q decline in Q4 2022, the revised numbers indicate that the Euro Area…