We recommend that investors use the following framework to think about whether potential disinflation would be bullish or bearish for share prices: disinflation will prove to be bullish for global share prices if it is due to an…

Special Report

The Fed’s asset sales are unlikely to lead to an additional outsized impact on long-maturity government bond yields beyond what expectations for the path of the fed funds rate would justify. However, the stance of monetary policy has…

The kinked Phillips curve not only explains why inflation surged last year but makes a number of surprising predictions, chief of which is that inflation could fall significantly over the coming months without a major increase in the…

BCA’s Emerging Markets Strategy team’s view remains that US inflation will prove to be sticky. That said, in this report, we examine under what conditions a considerable drop in US core inflation, whenever it transpires, would be…

In this report, we assess that sterling likely bottomed below 1.04. We expect volatility in the currency to remain in place but are buyers below current levels. On balance, there is a tug of war between irresponsible fiscal policy…

Special Report

In this report, we elaborate on why the Chinese central government has been reluctant to open stimulus taps as much as in the past, especially when it comes to the ailing property market. In recent years, there has been a major shift…

We remain bearish on equities. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon that is embedded and perpetuated by a wage-price spiral. The Fed will “keep at it until the job is done.” Economic growth is slowing, and an earnings recession as soon…

This week’s Global Investment Strategy report titled Fourth Quarter 2022 Strategy Outlook: A Three-Act Play discusses the outlook for the global economy and financial markets for the rest of 2022 and beyond.

Listen to a short summary of this report     Executive Summary GIS Projection For The EUR/USD  We went long the euro early last week, as EUR/USD hit our buy limit price of $0.99. Despite a near cut-off of…

In lieu of next week’s report, I will host the monthly Counterpoint Webcast on Thursday, September 22 (9:00 AM EDT, 2:00 PM BST). In this Webcast, I will discuss the near-term and longer-term prospects for all the major asset classes…