Special Report

A message for Foreign Exchange Strategy clients, There will be no report next week, as we take a summer break. We will be joining our clients and colleagues for our annual investment conference to be held in New York, on September 7…

Executive Summary US Companies Will Attempt To Raise Selling Prices To Protect Their Profit Margins  China needs lower interest rates and a weaker currency to battle deflationary pressures. In the US, the main problem is…

Special Report

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary Back From The Future: An Investor’s Almanac  Stocks will rally over the next six months as recession risks abate but then begin to swoon as…

Executive Summary More Regional Divergences Within Our Global LEI  The BCA global leading economic indicator (LEI) is still in a downtrend, but its diffusion index – which tends to lead the overall global LEI at major…

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary Significant Savings Provide A Moat Around Consumers  Three mega moats will protect the US economy over the next 12 months: 1) A high number of job…

Executive Summary Unit Labor Costs, Not Oil Prices, Are The Key To US Core Inflation  Inflation is not about oil, food or used car prices. Looking at prices of individual components of a consumer basket is akin to missing…

Executive Summary Realized Real Interest Rates Must Rise  Policymakers must continue engineering higher real interest rates, and tighter financial conditions, to help cool off growth and bring down overshooting inflation.…

Special Report

Executive Summary Dollar Still The Largest Global Reserve Currency  The rise of cryptocurrencies like stablecoins theoretically pose risks to fiat currencies and their general use. In the US, the Federal Reserve will look…

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary The odds of a recession in the US are lower than widely perceived. The probability of a recession is higher in Europe, although this week’s partial…

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary The TIPS Market Foresees A Sharp Deceleration In Inflation  TIPS breakevens are pointing to a rapid decline in US inflation over the next two…