Executive Summary China Needs To Create RMB35 Trillion In Credit In 2022  The pace of credit creation in January increased sharply over December. However, the jump was less than meets the eye compared with previous easing…

Executive Summary The Pandemic-Led Surge In E-Commerce Spending Is Reverting Back To Trend  Rising interest rates and a cooling in pandemic-related tech spending will cap the upside for technology shares over the remainder of…

Highlights The selloff in equities since the start of the year marks a long overdue correction rather than the start of a bear market. Stocks often suffer a period of indigestion when bond yields rise suddenly, but usually bounce back…

Highlights The neutral rate of interest in the US is 3%-to-4% in nominal terms or 1%-to-2% in real terms, which is substantially higher than the Fed believes and the market is discounting. The end of the household deleveraging cycle,…

Highlights Global equities are poised to deliver mid-to-high single-digit returns this year, with the outlook turning bleaker in 2023 and beyond. Non-US markets are likely to outperform. We examine the four pillars that have…

Dear Client, We are sending you our Strategy Outlook today where we outline our thoughts on the global economy and the direction of financial markets for 2022 and beyond. Next week, please join me for a webcast on Friday, December 10th…

In lieu of next week’s report, I will be presenting the quarterly Counterpoint webcast titled ‘Where Is The Groupthink Wrong? (Part 2)’. I do hope you can join. Highlights If a continued surge in the oil price…

Special Report

Having worked as an economist for close to 50 years, the current strange and uncertain environment seems a good time to look back and consider some of the lessons I have learned. An additional reason for writing this rather personal…

Highlights Gold prices will continue to be challenged by conflicting information flows regarding US monetary policy; higher inflationary impulses from commodity prices and supply-chain bottlenecks; global economic policy uncertainty,…

Highlights The current burst of inflation in developed economies is due to a (negative) supply shock rather than a (positive) demand shock. Consumer complaints of “poor buying conditions” mean that higher prices will cause…