The Joshi rule real-time US recession indicator remains at an elevated 0.154 versus its recession event horizon of 0.200, indicating weakening US labour demand. With the last mile of US disinflation requiring labour demand to ‘catch…

The stimulus measures announced at last week's NPC were not a game changer. As in 2023, we expect aggregate government spending will fall short of the budgeted amount again this year.

Expected inflation has surged to its highest level in a year. This has surprised many people, but expected inflation is behaving just as expected. Expected inflation is not a prophecy, it is just a mathematical function of delivered…

Special Report

In this BCA Special Report, we ask what policies investors should expect if Donald Trump wins the 2024 Presidential election. The answer is that a second Trump term would be much less positive for risky assets than the first. While…

Recessions often begin seemingly out of the blue when the economy’s temperature falls enough to set in motion adverse feedback loops that cause unemployment to rise. We expect the US economy to suddenly freeze over towards the end of…

Special Report

China will continue to suffer from a “triple crisis”. Though there could be a tactical bounce, cyclically we still recommend underweighting Chinese equities.

Special Report

Indonesia will not revert to dictatorship. Yet the guardrails against authoritarianism are also constraining the actions of the next government in tackling near term domestic and regional challenges. For long-term positioning, use…

In this Insight, we share our thoughts on yesterday’s FOMC meeting and the Fed’s likely next moves, with implications for US bond strategy.

We describe and explain the wide disparity of wage inflation across G7 economies, and discuss what it means for the Fed, ECB, BoE, and BoJ policy moves in the coming year. Plus: we highlight two investments ripe for reversal, and two…

We present the performance review of the Global Fixed Income Strategy Model Bond Portfolio for 2023. We also discuss the outlook for 2024 performance based on our Key Views for the year. The portfolio is positioned to benefit from a…