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Money/Credit/Debt

Times of Extreme Tightening Support Private Credit
According to BCA Research’s newly launched Private Markets & Alternatives service, the present moment in the business cycle appears to be favorable for Private Credit relative to Private Equity. The current macroeconomic environment is characterized by…
Daily Insights
China: Policymakers Are Behind The Growth Curve

Policymakers will likely continue to stimulate domestic demand via targeted measures and piecemeal stimulus. Yet, the economy will disappoint unless Beijing provides “irrigation-style” stimulus. The latter is not our base case scenario.

BCA Special Reports by Arthur Budaghyan
China: Policymakers Are Behind The Growth Curve

Policymakers will likely continue to stimulate domestic demand via targeted measures and piecemeal stimulus. Yet, the economy will disappoint unless Beijing provides “irrigation-style” stimulus. The latter is not our base case scenario.

China Investment Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
China: Policymakers Are Behind The Growth Curve

Policymakers will likely continue to stimulate domestic demand via targeted measures and piecemeal stimulus. Yet, the economy will disappoint unless Beijing provides “irrigation-style” stimulus. The latter is not our base case scenario.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
Will Beijing Do Whatever It Takes?
China’s money and credit update for May continues a string of disappointing Chinese data releases. The CNY 1.56 trillion increase in total social financing fell below expectations of a CNY 1.90 trillion rise. Similarly, the CNY 1.36 trillion in new bank loans…
Daily Insights
Eurozone Succumbs To A Technical Recession
The final Q1 GDP release shows the Euro Area economy contracted by 0.1% q/q last quarter, a downwards revision from estimates of a 0.1% expansion. To the extent that this follows a 0.1% q/q decline in Q4 2022, the revised numbers indicate that the Euro Area…
Daily Insights
Falling German Factory Orders: Bad News For Eurozone Stocks
Tuesday’s German factory orders release sent a disappointing signal about industrial demand. Although the pace of decline eased from -10.9% m/m to -0.4% m/m in April, it fell below expectations of a 2.8% m/m increase. Both capital and consumer goods orders…
Daily Insights
The Euro Is Here To Stay
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, although the ECB faces important challenges in the coming year, its success in maintaining price stability and in preserving the euro’s integrity are bullish for the euro because it makes…
Daily Insights
Is China In A Liquidity Trap?

Symptoms of a liquidity trap for Chinese households are appearing. Our proprietary indicators for the marginal propensity to spend among households and enterprises continue falling. There has been a paradigm shift in Beijing’s approach to policy stimulus. Authorities will be slow to introduce large stimulus. Hence, China-related financial markets are set to fall further.

Emerging Markets Strategy, China Investment Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
A Word On French Banks
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service French banks are better positioned to weather current headwinds than their European peers. The team sees limited risks to the French banking sector from the recent banking turmoil. French…
Daily Insights

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