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Money/Credit/Debt

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The Case For V

This Insight looks at the likely direction of bond yields and the dollar, from the lens of money velocity.

Global Fixed Income Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
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The Case For V

This Insight looks at the likely direction of bond yields and the dollar, from the lens of money velocity.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
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The ECB Dangerous Game

Yesterday, the ECB solidified its recent dovish tilt in response to weaker growth and decreasing inflationary pressures. It is now set to cut rates 25bps each meeting. How low will the ECB deposit rate ultimately go and what does this imply for yields and the euro?

European Investment Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Mathieu Savary
ECB Cuts Rates, Signals Disinflationary Process Is Well On Track
The ECB cut interest rates by 25 bps for the third time this year, lowering the deposit facility rate from 3.5% to 3.25%. While the ECB is avoiding explicitly committing to a path for policy, President Lagarde’s repeated statement that the disinflationary…
Daily Insights
What To Watch
Daily Insights
Taking The Pulse From Bank Earnings
Third-quarter earnings season has started last week for banks, with most major banks reporting earnings above expectations so far. Our US Investment strategists routinely analyze the big banks' earnings calls to gauge their views on the strength of…
Daily Insights
ECB Bank Lending Survey: A Bright Spot For Europe
Banks reported an increase in loan demand from both firms and households in the European Central Bank’s Bank Lending Survey, marking the first rise since 2022. This demand increase occurred as lending standards for firms remained roughly unchanged after two…
Daily Insights
China Stimulus: Rich In Promises, Short In Details
Our China and Emerging Market strategy teams analyzed this weekend press conference by the China’s Ministry of Finance (MoF), that provided additional details on the recently announced fiscal stimulus plan. Our colleagues view the recent announcement as…
Daily Insights
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Making Sense Of China’s Fiscal Promises

To produce a moderate economic recovery, at least RMB 3 trillion in additional government expenditures is needed in H1 2025. Our bias is that Beijing is not yet ready to launch such a massive fiscal support measure. Hence, volatility-adjusted equity returns in China will be poor.

China Investment Strategy, Emerging Markets Strategy by Jing Sima, Arthur Budaghyan
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Travelogue: Europe At A Crossroad

This week, we cover the main questions we fielded during our latest client trip in Europe. Among the many topics broached are Europe’s recession odds, the impact of China’s stimulus, and the outlook for European markets.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary

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