Highlights Rising Bond Yields: Global risk assets are discounting a V-shaped economic recovery. With economic data starting to revive as more economies emerge from virus-related shutdowns, bond yields are showing signs of following…
Highlights Ever since the Federal Reserve’s liquidity injections, the dollar has been trading in a bifurcated manner. Historically, this has been a rare event. The main bifurcation has been between developed market and commodity…
Highlights The global economy will contract at its fastest pace since the early 1930s, but will not slump into a depression. Easy monetary conditions, an extremely expansive fiscal policy, and solid bank and household balance sheets…
Analyses on Chinese autos and Brazil are available below. Highlights The Fed’s aggressive monetization of public and some private debt has inspired investors to allocate cash to risk assets However, a number of cyclical…
Highlights The six-month increase in European bank credit flows amounts to an underwhelming $70 billion, compared to a record high $660 billion in the US and $550 billion in China. Underweight European domestic cyclicals versus their…
Highlights The Chinese economy is recovering at a slower rate than the equity market has priced in. There is a high likelihood of negative revisions to Q2 EPS estimates and an elevated risk of a near-term price correction in Chinese…
Highlights Banks have an unmatched perspective on the entire economy, … : BCA began by tracking money flows through the banking system to gain advance notice of the direction of markets and the economy. … so we review…
Highlights With interest rates near zero around the world, balance sheet policy will become an important driver for currencies. Should the global economy need another dose of monetary stimulus, yield curve control (YCC) and direct…